Democracy News

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.85%chance

846140

OptionVotes

YES

1823

1536

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?

Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

69.11%chance

12019105

OptionVotes

YES

1132

984

Will the US be a democracy in 2050?

Dec 23, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.39%chance

1012682

OptionVotes

YES

2249

1892

Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?

Dec 2, 5:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.16%chance

8410236

OptionVotes

YES

1894

1124

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

24.89%chance

471599

OptionVotes

YES

1147

987

Will the USA be a democracy in 2040?

May 11, 8:56 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

83.63%chance

121678

OptionVotes

YES

1045

959

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 13, 5:56 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

22.58%chance

433077

OptionVotes

YES

1024

970

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.39%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

1351

740

Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy?

Jun 9, 9:53 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

40%chance

253720

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.24%chance

131140

OptionVotes

YES

1123

891

🇺🇸 If Biden wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?

Mar 11, 4:04 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

27.62%chance

10260

OptionVotes

YES

1107

939

Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?

Dec 23, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.19%chance

241092

OptionVotes

YES

1173

936

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Democracy News

Prediction markets for Democracy

Prediction markets for Democracy

Prediction markets for Democracy

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?

Will the US be a democracy in 2050?

Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Will the USA be a democracy in 2040?

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy?

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

🇺🇸 If Biden wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?

Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Democracy

Prediction markets for Democracy

Prediction markets for Democracy

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term?

Will the US be a democracy in 2050?

Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Will the USA be a democracy in 2040?

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?