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Definitely Maybe News
Prediction markets for Definitely Maybe
Prediction markets for Definitely Maybe
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
39.04%
chance
127
26724
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1901
992
Musk v Mosk: Is Tesla an Enron-style fraud?
May 3, 2:04 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13.22%
chance
11
314
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1199
932
Will Dominic Cummings launch a new "startup" party before the next UK General Election?
Aug 15, 12:49 PM
Jan 31, 11:59 PM
6.87%
chance
40
6682
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4977
1151
When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?
Jul 14, 10:50 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
46.59%
chance
16
294
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1145
843
Google releases a smartphone with LLM integrated into the OS, by 2025?
Apr 1, 6:09 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
62.52%
chance
26
971
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1138
903
Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030?
Aug 16, 4:34 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
5.29%
chance
15
387
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1338
923
Will I feel Manifold Markets is a competitive way of gaining information by 2027?
Jun 19, 8:40 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
82.48%
chance
8
124
Option
Votes
NO
YES
241
87
Manifold Cash Prizes via Sweepstakes Prop Bets
May 13, 9:15 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
24
6826
Will my novel be published (or be on track to be) by mid-2026?
Nov 28, 6:37 AM
Jun 29, 3:59 AM
28.05%
chance
8
120
Option
Votes
YES
NO
262
149
If Aliens Experience More Meaningful Lives Than us, Ought we Accept Our Demise? (Read Description)
Apr 16, 6:00 PM
10
0
Do people on manifold generally mean the same thing when they say AGI?
Jan 25, 3:14 PM
47
0
Taiwan China Potential Conflict Style Guide - Feedback Wanted
Mar 12, 10:26 AM
0
0
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