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Prediction markets for Decades

Will there be a trillionaire this decade?

Apr 9, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.43%chance

12758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

903

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.58%chance

9147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3499

3359

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

260

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

1078480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1791

1750

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.74%chance

20849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

955

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

May 18, 5:33 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

84%chance

17718274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

1393

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

54.87%chance

201054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

1296

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.43%chance

12722544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

942

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.89%chance

6198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

122

Will there be 100 million famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Jan 1, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.6%chance

293087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

1487

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

433878

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

731

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Jan 2, 7:27 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM

57.63%chance

211322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

901

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Six Injured, Gun Recovered in Dupont Circle Shooting Near White House
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2 months
Washington DC
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