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Prediction markets for Debate

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)

Jan 24, 2:55 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

19.47%chance

27781463734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12313

4763

Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?

May 21, 9:54 PMAug 14, 4:59 AM

2112181

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?

Apr 20, 8:58 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

24.42%chance

12217215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3417

1042

Will ChatGPT be mentioned in the 2024 US presidential debates?

Aug 3, 5:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.55%chance

22838063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3405

780

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

126108302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1121

Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?

Mar 28, 12:04 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

27.4%chance

63170155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2062

922

Will there be a presidential debate between the Republican and Democratic nominees in the 2024 election cycle?

Feb 2, 3:50 PMNov 5, 5:59 AM

60.36%chance

608597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

981

Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?

Jun 28, 10:29 AMJul 28, 8:00 PM

27754670

Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025?

Feb 10, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.86%chance

24935685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6373

1347

Will "delve" be said by anyone in a US presidential debate in 2024?

May 5, 3:14 AMNov 9, 4:59 AM

22.36%chance

422971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1623

1430

Which of these will Destiny debate next?

Jan 2, 12:06 AMJun 10, 6:59 AM

447131

Will there be a 2nd debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle?

Jun 28, 2:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

64%chance

332564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1333

750

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