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Prediction markets for Dead or Alive

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.48%chance

26628053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9976

9755

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

13936016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5517

1253

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

62.95%chance

13312430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2175

1905

Will I be alive by 2100?

Oct 24, 7:50 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

31.62%chance

547125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

951

What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000?

Jan 2, 4:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

203898

Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024?

Mar 22, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.8%chance

274125875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

562

Will a record label release a song with an AI-generated voice of a dead billboard top 100 all time artist, b4 EOY 2024?

Jun 28, 10:31 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

54.96%chance

361889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2047

1140

Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive

Sep 22, 5:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.58%chance

314035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

837

Will Vladimir Putin be alive on 1st January 2026?

Jun 11, 8:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

85%chance

307091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2380

420

By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?

Nov 26, 5:59 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

90%chance

747690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1620

1398

Will Warren Buffet be alive past 2025?

Aug 7, 3:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.79%chance

397214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

964

Will Garp leave Hachinosu alive?

Jul 13, 4:17 PMMar 1, 3:59 AM

70.05%chance

18127325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

1312

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