Days of Play News

Biden wins which states? Plus 36 other weird election markets. Tons of mana, 12k liquidity

Nov 23, 7:42 AMNov 9, 7:59 AM

10030505

Will Jordan Love play in the Valentine's Day Super Bowl?

Feb 12, 5:06 PMFeb 15, 4:59 AM

10.86%chance

5186

OptionVotes

YES

336

Cantlay, Day, Schauffele, Young, Rahm, and Scott: Will at least 3 of these players join the LIV Golf Tour in 2024?

Oct 18, 11:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28.73%chance

5107

OptionVotes

YES

153

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.74%chance

29366911

OptionVotes

YES

2732

2503

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.7%chance

22329036

OptionVotes

YES

3130

1759

Will Nevada stay blue in 2024

Sep 5, 3:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

48.61%chance

223769

OptionVotes

YES

1078

909

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Jan 9, 3:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.82%chance

737617

OptionVotes

YES

1631

608

Will ANY 2020 red states/districts flip blue in 2024?

Sep 5, 7:07 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

40.91%chance

629641

OptionVotes

YES

1183

779

Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024?

May 21, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

183864

OptionVotes

YES

1074

931

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

May 9, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.83%chance

15418

OptionVotes

YES

1087

732

Will I have paid at least 1000 USD to Manifold Markets by the end of 2024?

Feb 7, 5:52 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

31.03%chance

15602

OptionVotes

YES

1025

977

Will Pennsylvania stay blue in 2024?

Sep 5, 12:32 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

54.12%chance

201613

OptionVotes

YES

1145

781

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Days of Play News

Prediction markets for Days of Play

Prediction markets for Days of Play

Prediction markets for Days of Play

Biden wins which states? Plus 36 other weird election markets. Tons of mana, 12k liquidity

Will Jordan Love play in the Valentine's Day Super Bowl?

Cantlay, Day, Schauffele, Young, Rahm, and Scott: Will at least 3 of these players join the LIV Golf Tour in 2024?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Will Nevada stay blue in 2024

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Will ANY 2020 red states/districts flip blue in 2024?

Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024?

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

Will I have paid at least 1000 USD to Manifold Markets by the end of 2024?

Will Pennsylvania stay blue in 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Days of Play

Prediction markets for Days of Play

Prediction markets for Days of Play

Biden wins which states? Plus 36 other weird election markets. Tons of mana, 12k liquidity

Will Jordan Love play in the Valentine's Day Super Bowl?

Cantlay, Day, Schauffele, Young, Rahm, and Scott: Will at least 3 of these players join the LIV Golf Tour in 2024?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Will Nevada stay blue in 2024

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Will ANY 2020 red states/districts flip blue in 2024?

Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024?

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

Will I have paid at least 1000 USD to Manifold Markets by the end of 2024?

Will Pennsylvania stay blue in 2024?

Latest stories