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Taylor Swift Debuts 'thanK you aIMee,' Performs with Hayley Williams at Wembley Stadium in London
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20
8 days
Culture

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.3%chance

260536005

OptionVotes

YES

3277

1504

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.25%chance

26227803

OptionVotes

YES

10219

9513

Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?

Jan 20, 3:29 AMNov 7, 6:59 AM

46.92%chance

35762903

OptionVotes

YES

2376

2224

Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for two consecutive weeks? [RCP]

Feb 18, 12:40 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

74.45%chance

15913808

OptionVotes

YES

4745

2881

1% for each day before Starship flight 5

Jun 6, 4:45 PMSep 14, 10:59 PM

63.61%chance

122216

OptionVotes

YES

1322

756

On what day will our baby be born?

Jun 26, 1:36 AMJul 8, 6:59 AM

2878390

Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?

Mar 6, 8:47 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

6.69%chance

13221418

OptionVotes

YES

7386

637

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Feb 20, 9:59 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

8%chance

971142832

OptionVotes

YES

2216

979

Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day?

Apr 30, 5:55 PMNov 6, 7:00 AM

30.03%chance

15020985

OptionVotes

YES

1910

448

Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for four consecutive weeks?

Feb 18, 8:15 PMNov 7, 7:59 AM

46%chance

8910880

OptionVotes

YES

1503

1269

Will Trump beat Biden in every New York Times/Sienna national poll before election day?

Mar 2, 6:51 PMNov 11, 7:59 AM

31.09%chance

602174

OptionVotes

YES

1803

1625

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.75%chance

181552

OptionVotes

YES

1230

909

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Day News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Day

Prediction markets for Day

Prediction markets for Day

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?

Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for two consecutive weeks? [RCP]

1% for each day before Starship flight 5

On what day will our baby be born?

Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day?

Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for four consecutive weeks?

Will Trump beat Biden in every New York Times/Sienna national poll before election day?

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Day

Prediction markets for Day

Prediction markets for Day

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?

Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for two consecutive weeks? [RCP]

1% for each day before Starship flight 5

On what day will our baby be born?

Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?