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Prediction markets for Daily 202

Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?

Jul 4, 5:15 PMJan 1, 7:29 AM

8.52%chance

9341632688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9322

3408

Will Portland, Oregon have a daily high temperature of 104F (40C) or greater in 2024? 🌡

Feb 20, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.47%chance

251077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6673

5498

Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?

Dec 22, 2:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

7.43%chance

30536505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10552

938

Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?

Dec 22, 2:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.47%chance

37584138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8792

2514

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

Oct 23, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.52%chance

18331830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

930

916

Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?

May 9, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.83%chance

15418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

732

will the scarlet maintain a daily language study streak throughout 2024?

Jan 11, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

10663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

939

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.18%chance

512091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

967

Will an autonomous personal AI agent, capable of managing daily affairs, be available by the end of 2024?

Dec 30, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.62%chance

383398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

806

Sergey Brin or Larry Page returns to a daily leadership role at Google/Alphabet before end of 2025

Mar 26, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.36%chance

11424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

944

Will my daily average usage of the ChatGPT app surpass 15mins in Jan 2025?

Jan 28, 5:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.16%chance

15256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

955

Will Manifold hit 3,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2024?

Dec 23, 11:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.97%chance

15955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

635

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