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Prediction markets for Cross

Will a new Animal Crossing main series title be announced before 2025?

Mar 29, 6:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.6%chance

31824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

738

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

29.47%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

980

Will Biden issue an executive order that prevents people who cross the bordrer illegally from seeking asylum?

Feb 24, 1:06 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM

95.01%chance

242712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2336

34

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.03%chance

13306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

929

🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Will US Border Control detain more people trying to cross the US-Mexico border in 2024 than in 2023?

Feb 16, 11:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.35%chance

13758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

586

Will OpenAI cross $4.5B in annualized revenue in 2024?

Jan 2, 12:48 PMJan 11, 2:59 AM

85.63%chance

292247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2291

249

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.27%chance

11301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

945

Will India's GDP cross $7 trillion by 2030?

Jul 31, 1:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

63.15%chance

331741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

987

979

Will I (@Bayesian) cross 1750 Blitz on lichess.org in 2024?

Mar 22, 5:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.67%chance

151263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

565

Will Tesla Cross $1tn valuation in 2024

Oct 24, 2:28 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

26.52%chance

221303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

876

If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?

Mar 9, 10:33 PMOct 31, 6:59 AM

35%chance

11803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

953

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