CRA News

Will Manifold's U.S. Elections page crash during election night?

Jan 26, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.45%chance

16651

OptionVotes

YES

10102

9908

Did an openAI model crack AES-192 encryption?

Nov 26, 8:44 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.97%chance

210153757

OptionVotes

YES

8163

1482

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4255271

OptionVotes

YES

11722

4317

What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?

Aug 23, 5:56 PMJun 30, 5:56 PM

31554628

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.2%chance

313460

OptionVotes

YES

1243

877

Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?

May 3, 5:50 AMNov 6, 4:59 PM

17%chance

5610557

OptionVotes

YES

2196

279

Will Nvidia stock crash before the S&P500?

May 29, 5:23 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

72.53%chance

507276

OptionVotes

YES

1625

615

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

Will China suffer a financial crash in 2024?

Jan 9, 8:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.43%chance

15552

OptionVotes

YES

1015

941

Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?

Aug 21, 7:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.85%chance

756705

OptionVotes

YES

1113

970

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

Jun 1, 8:09 PMJun 2, 5:59 AM

47.75%chance

3155

OptionVotes

YES

1046

956

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Feb 5, 10:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.3%chance

20723

OptionVotes

YES

1009

938

Latest stories

Lawmakers and Advocates Rally Against Biden's Title IX Rewrite to Protect Women's Sports
Authors
7
21 days
Politics
Lawmakers Urge Biden Not to Veto Bill Overturning SEC's SAB 121 on Bitcoin Custody
Authors
6
1 month
Crypto

CRA News

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Will Manifold's U.S. Elections page crash during election night?

Did an openAI model crack AES-192 encryption?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?

Will Nvidia stock crash before the S&P500?

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Will China suffer a financial crash in 2024?

Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Latest stories

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Will Manifold's U.S. Elections page crash during election night?

Did an openAI model crack AES-192 encryption?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?

Will Nvidia stock crash before the S&P500?