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Prediction markets for Cover

Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?

Mar 21, 11:45 AMJul 15, 4:59 AM

4.64%chance

2755235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74476

15605

Will an AI alignment research paper be featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal? (2024)

Mar 26, 2:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.92%chance

673029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1276

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

29.99%chance

669182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

752

Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?

Feb 22, 12:01 AMNov 5, 5:59 AM

72.46%chance

337217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

877

Will Disney+’s Percy Jackson cover all 5 books before being cancelled?

Apr 2, 2:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.32%chance

19293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

941

Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?

Nov 24, 12:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.88%chance

261327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

819

Conditional on me reading GEB cover to cover, will I believe that reading this significantly helped my alignment thinking?

Jan 14, 9:22 AMMar 14, 10:59 PM

17%chance

17503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

958

Will an F1 car get damaged by a manhole / drain cover in 2024?

Feb 25, 8:12 AMNov 3, 10:59 PM

26.47%chance

20717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

801

Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Mar 21, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.25%chance

20690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

946

Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)

Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

951

Will a large insurance company cover weight loss drugs before 2027?

Aug 3, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.53%chance

8205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

164

Will Germany have higher forest cover in 2027 than 2023

Jan 22, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.61%chance

324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

74

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