Conversational AI News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.81%chance

211981

OptionVotes

YES

2733

366

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

525287

OptionVotes

YES

1024

874

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

Jan 7, 5:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.6%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

122

What application of AI will have the largest everyday-lifestyle impact in 2024 USA?

Jan 4, 9:10 PMJan 1, 11:01 AM

281538

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.89%chance

714302173

OptionVotes

YES

22056

17095

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Dec 3, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.64%chance

282050

OptionVotes

YES

3004

2533

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.62%chance

1287952

OptionVotes

YES

1879

1457

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.39%chance

251352

OptionVotes

YES

1438

696

Will Perplexity be bought out by the end of 2024?

Jan 13, 4:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.22%chance

11251

OptionVotes

YES

1064

966

Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?

May 22, 6:30 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

63.69%chance

13626

OptionVotes

YES

1325

755

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.92%chance

26437

OptionVotes

YES

1012

989

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

63.39%chance

15479

OptionVotes

YES

1001

996

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Conversational AI News

Prediction markets for Conversational AI

Prediction markets for Conversational AI

Prediction markets for Conversational AI

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

What application of AI will have the largest everyday-lifestyle impact in 2024 USA?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will Perplexity be bought out by the end of 2024?

Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Conversational AI

Prediction markets for Conversational AI

Prediction markets for Conversational AI

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?

What application of AI will have the largest everyday-lifestyle impact in 2024 USA?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027