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Prediction markets for Contra

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)

Dec 19, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.95%chance

221210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1414

928

Will Aldi open a bay area (Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Alameda) store before Jan 1 2025?

Nov 20, 9:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

10

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

Will "Contra Ngo et al. “Every ‘Every Bay Area Hous..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 23, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.78%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

65

Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2026?

Mar 26, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.45%chance

361450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

859

Will any US state ban contraception by 2030?

Jan 3, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

301520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

979

Will Justin Verlander hit his 2024 IP contract trigger?

May 21, 11:02 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

19.98%chance

41024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2001

500

Will Destiny renew a contract with Kick once it expires?

Mar 8, 6:33 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

42%chance

221749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

854

Will the player selected #1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft sign a contract extension with the team who draft him?

Mar 11, 11:08 PMAug 11, 10:59 PM

43.81%chance

10466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

902

Will Contrapoints release TWO (or more) mainline video essays in 2024?

Jan 4, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73%chance

384226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1320

833

Do airplane contrails have a net warming effect on the Earth?

Sep 26, 4:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.47%chance

660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

933

854

If Tetraspace makes an assurance contract website in 2024, will it reach 100 users?

Dec 24, 4:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.69%chance

6210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

788

710

The wti oil contract won't exist in 2027 because 90% of the oil in the world is fake

Apr 11, 2:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.11%chance

228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

85

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