Connections News

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Jan 9, 3:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.82%chance

737617

OptionVotes

YES

1631

608

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2026?

Jun 12, 6:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.4%chance

161145

OptionVotes

YES

1588

630

Will anyone be charged with a criminal offence in connection with gambling on the timing of the UK General Election?

Jun 23, 11:28 AMJul 4, 9:59 PM

54.46%chance

7660

OptionVotes

YES

1094

914

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

Aug 27, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.35%chance

191587

OptionVotes

YES

975

967

Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

May 3, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.7%chance

20224

OptionVotes

YES

1102

949

Will Google announce a Pixel model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

May 3, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.06%chance

11116

OptionVotes

YES

1094

952

If AGI is achieved, will it be able to consistently and reliably connect printers within 6 months?

Feb 25, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.03%chance

32461

OptionVotes

YES

1029

942

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2025?

Jun 12, 6:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.89%chance

142292

OptionVotes

YES

2861

350

Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038?

Mar 18, 10:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.24%chance

14439

OptionVotes

YES

1059

901

Will a GPT-5-worthy model be able to break 50% on NYT Connections benchmark?

Apr 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

66.02%chance

13370

OptionVotes

YES

1161

876

Will "Connecting the Dots: LLMs can Infer & Verbali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 3:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.46%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1047

753

Bridge built connecting any major Hawaiian islands through 2040

Aug 28, 2:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.42%chance

142765

OptionVotes

YES

1309

922

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Connections News

Prediction markets for Connections

Prediction markets for Connections

Prediction markets for Connections

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2026?

Will anyone be charged with a criminal offence in connection with gambling on the timing of the UK General Election?

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

Will Google announce a Pixel model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

If AGI is achieved, will it be able to consistently and reliably connect printers within 6 months?

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2025?

Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038?

Will a GPT-5-worthy model be able to break 50% on NYT Connections benchmark?

Will "Connecting the Dots: LLMs can Infer & Verbali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Bridge built connecting any major Hawaiian islands through 2040

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Connections

Prediction markets for Connections

Prediction markets for Connections

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2026?

Will anyone be charged with a criminal offence in connection with gambling on the timing of the UK General Election?

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

Will Google announce a Pixel model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

If AGI is achieved, will it be able to consistently and reliably connect printers within 6 months?