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Prediction markets for Competitions

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?

Dec 6, 1:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.59%chance

89139912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2047

1106

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Oct 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

43%chance

340123956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2040

1250

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMDec 4, 5:59 AM

5051663

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?

Dec 6, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

6957156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2383

1288

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?

Dec 6, 1:13 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.41%chance

164107729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6799

1437

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76%chance

20707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

940

Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?

Dec 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

12275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

1154

Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?

Nov 28, 5:13 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

4.37%chance

7031802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6153

603

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

52.49%chance

121115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

956

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.25%chance

12323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

975

Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve more than 50% of the tasks

Jun 12, 11:19 AMNov 4, 10:59 PM

61.31%chance

244067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

794

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