Competition News

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?

Dec 6, 1:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.68%chance

89139639

OptionVotes

YES

1958

1262

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMDec 4, 5:59 AM

4749536

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?

Dec 6, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

6957156

OptionVotes

YES

2383

1288

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?

Dec 6, 1:13 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.41%chance

164107729

OptionVotes

YES

6799

1437

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Oct 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

40.86%chance

330120353

OptionVotes

YES

1984

1327

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76%chance

20707

OptionVotes

YES

1108

940

Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?

Dec 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

12275

OptionVotes

YES

1263

1154

Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?

Nov 28, 5:13 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

4.37%chance

7031802

OptionVotes

YES

6153

603

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

52.49%chance

121115

OptionVotes

YES

1028

956

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.25%chance

12323

OptionVotes

YES

1045

975

Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve more than 50% of the tasks

Jun 12, 11:19 AMNov 4, 10:59 PM

61.31%chance

244067

OptionVotes

YES

1259

794

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Competition News

Prediction markets for Competition

Prediction markets for Competition

Prediction markets for Competition

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?

Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve more than 50% of the tasks

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Competition

Prediction markets for Competition

Prediction markets for Competition

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?

Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?