Community Day News

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Mar 20, 8:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.21%chance

191082

OptionVotes

YES

13210

12847

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.29%chance

111709

OptionVotes

YES

4632

4000

Will the price of Earbuds in Team Fortress 2 be $13.00 or more on Jan 1st 2026 according to Marketplace.tf?

Dec 7, 8:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.59%chance

1196

OptionVotes

YES

1032

961

Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024

Jan 11, 11:38 PMNov 12, 7:59 AM

24.9%chance

12286

OptionVotes

YES

1085

958

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Feb 20, 9:59 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

8%chance

971142832

OptionVotes

YES

2216

979

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Jul 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65%chance

151904

OptionVotes

YES

1093

932

Does Intermittent Fasting increase chance of cardiovascular death?

Mar 24, 1:31 AMFeb 7, 8:07 PM

10.54%chance

251012

OptionVotes

YES

1540

850

Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 6:52 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

1024

867

Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 6:52 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will "How do you feel about LessWrong these days? [..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

May 26, 9:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will "How do you feel about LessWrong these days? [..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

May 26, 9:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.25%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

1496

937

4) The most advanced closed models will continue to outperform the most advanced open models by a meaningful margin.

Dec 25, 1:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

92.3%chance

371358

OptionVotes

YES

1549

911

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Community Day News

Prediction markets for Community Day

Prediction markets for Community Day

Prediction markets for Community Day

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will the price of Earbuds in Team Fortress 2 be $13.00 or more on Jan 1st 2026 according to Marketplace.tf?

Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Does Intermittent Fasting increase chance of cardiovascular death?

Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Will "How do you feel about LessWrong these days? [..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Will "How do you feel about LessWrong these days? [..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

4) The most advanced closed models will continue to outperform the most advanced open models by a meaningful margin.

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Community Day

Prediction markets for Community Day

Prediction markets for Community Day

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will the price of Earbuds in Team Fortress 2 be $13.00 or more on Jan 1st 2026 according to Marketplace.tf?

Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Does Intermittent Fasting increase chance of cardiovascular death?