Communities News

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

7416

3786

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.06%chance

502487

OptionVotes

YES

1500

825

What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community by July 31st

Jun 19, 1:22 AMJul 31, 2:29 PM

85677

Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024?

May 31, 6:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.37%chance

131472

OptionVotes

YES

1215

823

Will Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?

Oct 2, 4:38 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

46.16%chance

20441

OptionVotes

YES

1025

967

Will Manifold raise a community round by the end of 2024?

May 16, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.25%chance

221018

OptionVotes

YES

1035

967

Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?

Oct 2, 4:29 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

45.88%chance

35964

OptionVotes

YES

992

989

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Feb 21, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.81%chance

323521

OptionVotes

YES

1125

891

Destiny community stock [permanent]

Feb 16, 7:51 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

51.41%chance

262202

OptionVotes

YES

1027

952

Will Mistral retain its popularity/relevance in the AI opensource community till end of 2024?

Dec 11, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

1015

978

Will manifold.love be seen as a mistake by the Manifold community at the end of 2024?

Oct 24, 6:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.34%chance

595137

OptionVotes

YES

1525

751

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Communities News

Prediction markets for Communities

Prediction markets for Communities

Prediction markets for Communities

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community by July 31st

Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024?

Will Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?

Will Manifold raise a community round by the end of 2024?

Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Destiny community stock [permanent]

Will Mistral retain its popularity/relevance in the AI opensource community till end of 2024?

Will manifold.love be seen as a mistake by the Manifold community at the end of 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Communities

Prediction markets for Communities

Prediction markets for Communities

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community by July 31st

Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024?

Will Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?

Will Manifold raise a community round by the end of 2024?