Commoners News

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.2%chance

313460

OptionVotes

YES

1243

877

Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?

Sep 20, 8:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.86%chance

21169970

OptionVotes

YES

4746

209

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.82%chance

915647

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1107

Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

Mar 17, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.96%chance

675189

OptionVotes

YES

1716

271

Will Brazil or Argentina officially approve a common currency before 2030?

Jan 23, 12:44 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

12.08%chance

5021816

OptionVotes

YES

2863

1088

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

452335

OptionVotes

YES

1111

862

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.4%chance

402406

OptionVotes

YES

1167

535

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Jan 15, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.61%chance

474639

OptionVotes

YES

1301

592

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Dec 15, 5:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.91%chance

542872

OptionVotes

YES

1226

958

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

31.8%chance

41025

OptionVotes

YES

1465

683

Will the prognosis for common cold patients be significantly better in 2035?

Sep 13, 4:16 PMJun 15, 9:59 PM

48.98%chance

16371

OptionVotes

YES

1012

979

Will Gemini 1.5 Pro seem to be as good as Gemini 1.0 Ultra for common use cases? [Poll]

Feb 15, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.71%chance

10146

OptionVotes

YES

1068

952

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Commoners News

Prediction markets for Commoners

Prediction markets for Commoners

Prediction markets for Commoners

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

Will Brazil or Argentina officially approve a common currency before 2030?

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Will the prognosis for common cold patients be significantly better in 2035?

Will Gemini 1.5 Pro seem to be as good as Gemini 1.0 Ultra for common use cases? [Poll]

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Commoners

Prediction markets for Commoners

Prediction markets for Commoners

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

Will Brazil or Argentina officially approve a common currency before 2030?

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?