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Prediction markets for Commitment

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.37%chance

10311740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3861

873

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.37%chance

959592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1993

1938

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

17.41%chance

518584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3705

3281

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.17%chance

1197389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2334

1844

Will Israel commit war crimes by cutting off food/water, electricity, and fuel to the Gaza Strip?

Oct 9, 12:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

73.2%chance

15123385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1800

1288

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.44%chance

17026333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

1110

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?

Nov 13, 11:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3.67%chance

12620901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5101

1758

Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?

Apr 1, 3:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.66%chance

7716955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1770

1210

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

22%chance

17559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

979

Will any of the Top 3 labs release an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness prior to January 1, 2025?

Mar 6, 10:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28%chance

362262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

946

Will anyone commit violence in order to slow the progression of AI?

Nov 2, 3:24 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

70%chance

498622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

855

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.99%chance

17630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

892

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Global Music Star Craig David, 42, Embarks on U.S. Tour for 'Commitment'
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