Collections News

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.86%chance

23018126

OptionVotes

YES

2709

1733

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.84%chance

25391

OptionVotes

YES

1075

958

Will we collectively be able to bring all markets on Manifold above 10 traders?

Feb 21, 7:50 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.06%chance

20433

OptionVotes

YES

1206

901

Will a major publishing house release a collection of poetry fully written by an AI by 2025?

May 19, 3:39 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

66.32%chance

521872

OptionVotes

YES

1082

939

Should Beeminder collect payment info without redirecting to a Stripe page?

Feb 22, 10:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.55%chance

14357

OptionVotes

YES

1184

900

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

89.83%chance

121140

OptionVotes

YES

1961

822

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.38%chance

14365

OptionVotes

YES

1052

903

will prerat be around and collecting mana from manifold markets in 100 years?

Feb 24, 6:03 AMFeb 24, 6:59 AM

14.24%chance

8304

OptionVotes

YES

439

133

Will Tesla sign a collective bargaining agreement with Swedish IF Metall before Jan 1st 2025?

Nov 27, 11:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

34.81%chance

9187

OptionVotes

YES

251

137

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

76.94%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

178

105

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Dec 15, 9:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.15%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

428

168

Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?

Feb 22, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.22%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

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Collections News

Prediction markets for Collections

Prediction markets for Collections

Prediction markets for Collections

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Will we collectively be able to bring all markets on Manifold above 10 traders?

Will a major publishing house release a collection of poetry fully written by an AI by 2025?

Should Beeminder collect payment info without redirecting to a Stripe page?

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

will prerat be around and collecting mana from manifold markets in 100 years?

Will Tesla sign a collective bargaining agreement with Swedish IF Metall before Jan 1st 2025?

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Collections

Prediction markets for Collections

Prediction markets for Collections

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Will we collectively be able to bring all markets on Manifold above 10 traders?

Will a major publishing house release a collection of poetry fully written by an AI by 2025?

Should Beeminder collect payment info without redirecting to a Stripe page?

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

will prerat be around and collecting mana from manifold markets in 100 years?

Will Tesla sign a collective bargaining agreement with Swedish IF Metall before Jan 1st 2025?

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?

Latest stories