Chinese invasion of Taiwan News

Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion by the end of 2023?

Jul 29, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.19%chance

373117

OptionVotes

YES

2217

890

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be Chinese strikes on American soil?

Dec 18, 2:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8259

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Dec 17, 1:09 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

81.8%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

208

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

39.61%chance

455062

OptionVotes

YES

1075

938

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.47%chance

12272

OptionVotes

YES

1045

966

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

31.69%chance

18641

OptionVotes

YES

1047

970

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

74.15%chance

12381

OptionVotes

YES

1107

939

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75.28%chance

17969

OptionVotes

YES

1239

900

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

YES

1104

925

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 6:29 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

42.2%chance

361874

OptionVotes

YES

1006

977

Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Jan 12, 1:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.5%chance

791

OptionVotes

YES

242

138

[Metaculus] If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

Oct 7, 1:16 PMJan 3, 9:00 PM

13.27%chance

5155

OptionVotes

YES

265

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Chinese invasion of Taiwan News

Prediction markets for Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Prediction markets for Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Prediction markets for Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion by the end of 2023?

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be Chinese strikes on American soil?

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

[Metaculus] If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Prediction markets for Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Prediction markets for Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion by the end of 2023?

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be Chinese strikes on American soil?

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?