Chinchilla News

Google DeepMind's LOFT Benchmark Evaluates Long-Context Models Like Chinchilla and PaLM
Authors
7
9 days
AI
Tech

If the experiment in the Chinchilla paper is repeated by a credible actor before 2026, will the exponent in the data scaling term be greater than 0.32?

Feb 20, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66%chance

6134

OptionVotes

YES

201

112

Will Joe Biden Publicly Refer to a Specific AI Model While President?

Dec 28, 1:06 PMJan 23, 4:06 PM

69.14%chance

1607582

OptionVotes

YES

2350

1854

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65%chance

16959

OptionVotes

YES

1066

953

Will any major LLM be shutdown due to US government action in 2024?

Feb 24, 5:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.4%chance

14445

OptionVotes

YES

1406

903

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionVotes

YES

1249

958

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

Jan 17, 3:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.5%chance

8142

OptionVotes

YES

458

289

My probability in 2026 that training transformer LMs will eventually lead to inner misalignment issues

Mar 18, 7:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.22%chance

692

OptionVotes

YES

194

150

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?

Dec 27, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.88%chance

9354

OptionVotes

YES

385

126

Latest stories

Google DeepMind's LOFT Benchmark Evaluates Long-Context Models Like Chinchilla and PaLM
Authors
7
9 days
AI
Tech
Replication of Chinchilla Scaling Paper Reveals Discrepancies, Calls for Methodological Refinement
Authors
6
2 months
AI
Tech

Chinchilla News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Chinchilla

Prediction markets for Chinchilla

Prediction markets for Chinchilla

If the experiment in the Chinchilla paper is repeated by a credible actor before 2026, will the exponent in the data scaling term be greater than 0.32?

Will Joe Biden Publicly Refer to a Specific AI Model While President?

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?

Will any major LLM be shutdown due to US government action in 2024?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

My probability in 2026 that training transformer LMs will eventually lead to inner misalignment issues

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Chinchilla

Prediction markets for Chinchilla

Prediction markets for Chinchilla

If the experiment in the Chinchilla paper is repeated by a credible actor before 2026, will the exponent in the data scaling term be greater than 0.32?

Will Joe Biden Publicly Refer to a Specific AI Model While President?

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?

Will any major LLM be shutdown due to US government action in 2024?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

My probability in 2026 that training transformer LMs will eventually lead to inner misalignment issues

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?

Latest stories

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?