Character Calls News

Will Wonderful Precure (TV) feature a character from a previous season?

Jun 2, 3:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

47.64%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

10048

9954

Will any AI by OpenAI be able to create images of English alphabet characters rotated by 90 degrees?

Nov 24, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.78%chance

21065353

OptionVotes

YES

2487

1031

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.83%chance

7424516

OptionVotes

YES

3220

964

Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?

May 22, 6:30 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

63.69%chance

13626

OptionVotes

YES

1325

755

Will IDFB 2 come out before 2025?

May 29, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.49%chance

2933

OptionVotes

YES

1912

523

Will the root cause of the Mandela Effect be found in 2024?

Jan 21, 10:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.73%chance

22696

OptionVotes

YES

985

984

[MEGAMARKET] What will be true of @jim's upcoming Rationalussy movie?

Feb 10, 2:12 PMDec 1, 10:59 AM

9788

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

Sep 18, 5:46 AMAug 18, 6:59 AM

31.82%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

139

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

May 18, 2:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47%chance

6106

OptionVotes

YES

154

103

What will the lowest initial API price of GPT-5 be?

Jun 18, 4:44 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM

250

By the start of 2025, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.58%chance

4151

OptionVotes

YES

179

By the start of 2025, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

May 18, 2:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.2%chance

6151

OptionVotes

YES

201

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Character Calls News

Prediction markets for Character Calls

Prediction markets for Character Calls

Prediction markets for Character Calls

Will Wonderful Precure (TV) feature a character from a previous season?

Will any AI by OpenAI be able to create images of English alphabet characters rotated by 90 degrees?

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?

Will IDFB 2 come out before 2025?

Will the root cause of the Mandela Effect be found in 2024?

[MEGAMARKET] What will be true of @jim's upcoming Rationalussy movie?

Will DC Comics prevent the Fables intellectual property from entering the public domain before August 2026?

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

What will the lowest initial API price of GPT-5 be?

By the start of 2025, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

By the start of 2025, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Character Calls

Prediction markets for Character Calls

Prediction markets for Character Calls

Will Wonderful Precure (TV) feature a character from a previous season?

Will any AI by OpenAI be able to create images of English alphabet characters rotated by 90 degrees?

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?

Will IDFB 2 come out before 2025?

Will the root cause of the Mandela Effect be found in 2024?

[MEGAMARKET] What will be true of @jim's upcoming Rationalussy movie?