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Prediction markets for Challengers

Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?

May 21, 9:54 PMAug 14, 4:59 AM

2112031

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

92.59%chance

4813659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5343

792

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?

Dec 23, 12:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.2%chance

261887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

711

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.57%chance

12136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

963

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

May 19, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

24.03%chance

141792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

941

Will Vaxart’s oral COVID vaccine candidate show at least 75% efficacy in a human challenge trial?

Aug 16, 9:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

55.12%chance

1080

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

991

Will either Mark Cuban or Elon Musk challenge the other to some sort of competition before the end of 2024?

Feb 7, 12:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.74%chance

25550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

852

Will Zendaya get an Oscar nomination for her role in Challengers?

Apr 24, 3:47 AMMar 31, 6:59 AM

61.78%chance

12178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

964

Will the Neuralink Compression Challenge Be Completed by the End of 2024?

May 24, 7:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.29%chance

122362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3325

301

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

61.72%chance

161097

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

947

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.13%chance

19514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

921

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