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Prediction markets for Category

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.28%chance

23234900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

980

933

Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?

Jan 24, 12:18 AMSep 2, 3:59 AM

29.05%chance

664007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

963

Will two or more Category 5 hurricanes have formed in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of 2024?

Jun 13, 2:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

101523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2024 hurricane season?

Jan 5, 6:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.79%chance

18476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will a category 5 hurricane hit the USA before 2026?

Dec 26, 10:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

61.01%chance

15367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

976

Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024?

Jan 9, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.79%chance

191034

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

842

Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024?

Jan 30, 7:51 PMSep 3, 3:59 AM

14.92%chance

403082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

910

Will manifold take steps to remove finance and stock market questions from the economics category by 2025?

Apr 6, 8:47 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

13.58%chance

17462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

897

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?

Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.56%chance

12389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

938

Which of the following changes to the racial and ethnic categories used in the US census be implemented?

Feb 27, 6:55 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

7291

Who will get the next Super Mario 64 speedrunning world record in the 120 Star category?

Jun 4, 5:04 PMAug 6, 2:29 PM

3233

Will the Legend of Zelda movie be nominated for an Oscar in any category?

Nov 18, 7:45 AMNov 25, 7:59 AM

39.83%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

80

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Latest stories

Indian Defence Ministry Signs Rs 1070 Cr Deal for 14 Fast Patrol Vessels with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd for Indian Coast Guard
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5
5 months
India
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