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Casualty News
Prediction markets for Casualty
Prediction markets for Casualty
Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
Oct 12, 3:57 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
25.72%
chance
11
253
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1030
978
Will there be an active war over Antarctica before 2100 with at least 10 casualties?
Aug 6, 4:56 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
38.07%
chance
47
2970
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1033
953
Will a MOAB, FOAB, or greater yield bomb be detonated, with at least one casualty, during 2024?
Jan 2, 1:06 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
9.79%
chance
14
629
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1208
946
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
Oct 13, 1:03 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
55.52%
chance
4
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
117
104
Unsounded Chapter 18 - Casualty Pool
Jul 8, 4:51 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
1
470
Will the Brazilian military engage the Venezuelan military leading to casualties by EOY 2024?
Nov 30, 12:55 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
14%
chance
9
332
Option
Votes
YES
NO
362
159
If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...
Nov 29, 9:25 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
7
144
Will India have a big communal violence in 2024? (More than 100 casualties)
Jan 18, 12:43 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
26.39%
chance
4
115
Option
Votes
YES
NO
158
72
Will a military skirmish with at least one casualty take place outside of Earth's atmosphere before 2050?
Feb 3, 11:52 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
15.39%
chance
10
433
Option
Votes
YES
NO
376
155
Will there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2024?
Nov 28, 3:37 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
12.77%
chance
7
349
Option
Votes
YES
NO
318
93
WW3: >1B drone casualties
Apr 2, 9:29 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
35.83%
chance
3
21
Option
Votes
YES
NO
87
57
What will be the final casualty ratio between Gaza and Israel in the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict?
Oct 14, 8:02 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
7
203
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Authors
4
4 months
Britain
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7
4 months
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