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Prediction markets for Calculator
Prediction markets for Calculator
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
Jan 21, 12:56 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
47.58%
chance
33
1032
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1047
914
Will humanity calculate pi to more than 1 Quadrillion (10^15) digits before the end of 2030?
Sep 15, 1:44 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
80.49%
chance
15
320
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1094
959
Will someone find an efficient algorithm for calculating DIscrete Logarithms on a classical computer?
Apr 7, 2:29 PM
Dec 1, 10:59 PM
22.61%
chance
7
176
Option
Votes
YES
NO
179
99
Will @jsuarez pufferfish RL environment be used to calculate friston free energy OR complexity/accuracy/surprise by 2028
Jun 12, 2:52 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Will "Pentagon allow calculators on military entrance exam"?
Aug 23, 4:37 AM
Aug 31, 9:59 PM
73.63%
chance
6
141
Option
Votes
NO
YES
203
121
Will we calculate the APM of AOE2 pros (eg Daut, Viper, MBL, TaToH) by EOY 2025 *just* by screen recordings/YT?
Mar 10, 2:18 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
45.25%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
130
111
If the Room-Temperature Superconductor is not real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030?
Aug 2, 8:29 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
19.01%
chance
4
227
Option
Votes
YES
NO
145
88
Will the US Congressional Budget Office open source their individual income tax calculator by 2024?
Nov 27, 6:03 PM
Dec 31, 6:03 PM
31.25%
chance
7
79
Option
Votes
YES
NO
173
103
In 2024, creation of IQ PRS score calculator for https://diyhpl.us/wiki/genetic-modifications like OakVar for longevity?
Jan 1, 5:39 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
When will no-calculator SOTA on the MATH dataset pass 90%?
Apr 10, 4:33 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
9
868
Why does Metaculus calculate their overconfidence score like this?
Jul 25, 3:50 PM
Jul 25, 9:59 PM
0
0
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
180
45857
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6
16 days
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Authors
7
18 days
Tech
Apple Announces Calculator App for iPad with Math Notes After 14 Years
Authors
63
18 days
Tech
Apple Plans to Release Calculator App with New Capabilities for iPad with iPadOS 18
Authors
17
2 months
Tech
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