Breakthrough of the Year News

Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?

Dec 15, 12:39 AMJan 2, 6:29 PM

41.17%chance

321194

OptionVotes

YES

1196

794

What will be 2024 Breakthrough of the Year according to the journal, Science

Dec 26, 9:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18507

Will a significant breakthrough in renewable energy storage technology be announced within the next year?

Feb 10, 8:44 PMFeb 11, 4:59 AM

28%chance

9255

OptionVotes

YES

302

108

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.95%chance

390548156

OptionVotes

YES

16109

12856

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72%chance

25717486

OptionVotes

YES

2595

2329

Will humans on average live to 100 years old by the end of this century?

Nov 2, 4:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.89%chance

455245

OptionVotes

YES

984

957

Will OpenAI Release a Chatbot Using the Q* Algorithm in 2024

Nov 23, 9:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.07%chance

191029

OptionVotes

YES

1234

911

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.06%chance

121005

OptionVotes

YES

1133

944

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.12%chance

17595

OptionVotes

YES

988

970

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.46%chance

342918

OptionVotes

YES

1566

835

Will there be Compound V from the 'The Boys' or 'Bioshock's Plasmids by EOY 2050?💉

Jan 13, 4:08 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.17%chance

201445

OptionVotes

YES

1285

918

What will have been the most important thing to happen in 2024? [Resolves to poll, subsidized]

Jan 26, 4:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

582284

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Breakthrough of the Year News

Prediction markets for Breakthrough of the Year

Prediction markets for Breakthrough of the Year

Prediction markets for Breakthrough of the Year

Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?

What will be 2024 Breakthrough of the Year according to the journal, Science

Will a significant breakthrough in renewable energy storage technology be announced within the next year?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Will humans on average live to 100 years old by the end of this century?

Will OpenAI Release a Chatbot Using the Q* Algorithm in 2024

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Will there be Compound V from the 'The Boys' or 'Bioshock's Plasmids by EOY 2050?💉

What will have been the most important thing to happen in 2024? [Resolves to poll, subsidized]

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Breakthrough of the Year

Prediction markets for Breakthrough of the Year

Prediction markets for Breakthrough of the Year

Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?

What will be 2024 Breakthrough of the Year according to the journal, Science

Will a significant breakthrough in renewable energy storage technology be announced within the next year?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Will humans on average live to 100 years old by the end of this century?

Will OpenAI Release a Chatbot Using the Q* Algorithm in 2024