Break Point News

What will be the Debate of the Year? (Destiny Awards 2024)

Dec 31, 9:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161899

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Jan 21, 12:55 PMJan 28, 11:59 PM

730793

Will any Manifold users bet mana gained from a death market, they caused to resolve, on a prize point market?

May 17, 4:48 AMJan 1, 11:41 AM

4.25%chance

2124943

OptionVotes

YES

4748

211

Will Ludwig and QT still be together at the end of 2025?

Jan 31, 5:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.12%chance

251142

OptionVotes

YES

1347

845

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.3%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

1110

937

Will NASA's Parker Solar Probe exceed 430,000 mph before 2025?

Jan 2, 4:57 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

49%chance

10478

OptionVotes

YES

1039

929

Will Prince Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030?

Jan 14, 12:39 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

49.24%chance

271895

OptionVotes

YES

1010

954

Will Google Chrome's mean desktop market share in the second half of 2024 be at least 2% lower than in the first half?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.35%chance

15414

OptionVotes

YES

1077

946

How many blog posts will Scott Alexander make to ACX in 2024? Question resolves to log(post count + 1)/log(300).

Dec 25, 10:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.97%chance

12613

OptionVotes

YES

1223

919

Will a meteorite cause property damage or injury on Earth in 2024?

Dec 25, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.54%chance

644343

OptionVotes

YES

1474

596

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.47%chance

29904

OptionVotes

YES

1104

829

Will Rep.-elect George Santos appear in court or in custody in Brazil (including through extradition) before the end of 2024?

Jan 3, 3:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.5%chance

244067

OptionVotes

YES

2202

813

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Break Point News

Prediction markets for Break Point

Prediction markets for Break Point

Prediction markets for Break Point

What will be the Debate of the Year? (Destiny Awards 2024)

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Will any Manifold users bet mana gained from a death market, they caused to resolve, on a prize point market?

Will Ludwig and QT still be together at the end of 2025?

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Will NASA's Parker Solar Probe exceed 430,000 mph before 2025?

Will Prince Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030?

Will Google Chrome's mean desktop market share in the second half of 2024 be at least 2% lower than in the first half?

How many blog posts will Scott Alexander make to ACX in 2024? Question resolves to log(post count + 1)/log(300).

Will a meteorite cause property damage or injury on Earth in 2024?

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Will Rep.-elect George Santos appear in court or in custody in Brazil (including through extradition) before the end of 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Break Point

Prediction markets for Break Point

Prediction markets for Break Point

What will be the Debate of the Year? (Destiny Awards 2024)

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Will any Manifold users bet mana gained from a death market, they caused to resolve, on a prize point market?

Will Ludwig and QT still be together at the end of 2025?

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Will NASA's Parker Solar Probe exceed 430,000 mph before 2025?

Will Prince Harry and Meghan divorce by 2030?