Block of the Year News

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Mar 31, 6:42 PMJul 6, 6:59 PM

333289835

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.88%chance

692753

OptionVotes

YES

1766

959

Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 10:52 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21%chance

171708

OptionVotes

YES

1939

516

Will Israel end the military conscription exemption for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jews) before the next general election?

Mar 26, 1:39 PMNov 24, 11:59 PM

70.48%chance

362949

OptionVotes

YES

1143

887

Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2024?

Aug 14, 9:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.93%chance

9918244

OptionVotes

YES

4739

534

Will Apple end "green bubble" texts in 2024?

Dec 27, 2:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.04%chance

332046

OptionVotes

YES

1069

966

Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?

Mar 29, 2:11 AMDec 1, 5:00 PM

6.32%chance

233725

OptionVotes

YES

1590

742

Will TikTok still be accessible in the US in April 2025? (1 Year Out)

Apr 24, 8:34 PMApr 25, 4:59 AM

58.9%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

145

What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released?

Jan 3, 1:52 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

10481

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky unblock me on Twitter in 2024?

Jan 31, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.46%chance

7183

OptionVotes

YES

253

Will Ohio's gender-affirming care ban for minors be in effect by the end of the year?

Mar 28, 10:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50.23%chance

8116

OptionVotes

YES

286

227

Will I subvert my internet blocks on a day that is not covered by one of my rolling commitment markets by EOY 2024.

Jun 24, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.37%chance

3159

OptionVotes

YES

198

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Block of the Year News

Prediction markets for Block of the Year

Prediction markets for Block of the Year

Prediction markets for Block of the Year

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030?

Will Israel end the military conscription exemption for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jews) before the next general election?

Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2024?

Will Apple end "green bubble" texts in 2024?

Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?

Will TikTok still be accessible in the US in April 2025? (1 Year Out)

What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky unblock me on Twitter in 2024?

Will Ohio's gender-affirming care ban for minors be in effect by the end of the year?

Will I subvert my internet blocks on a day that is not covered by one of my rolling commitment markets by EOY 2024.

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Block of the Year

Prediction markets for Block of the Year

Prediction markets for Block of the Year

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030?

Will Israel end the military conscription exemption for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jews) before the next general election?

Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2024?

Will Apple end "green bubble" texts in 2024?

Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?