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Black Paper News
Prediction markets for Black Paper
Prediction markets for Black Paper
Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
Feb 17, 3:37 AM
Dec 13, 7:59 AM
25%
chance
4
72
Option
Votes
YES
NO
121
70
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
Jun 8, 10:05 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
9.72%
chance
20
2908
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3048
328
Will interpretability be commonplace in physics papers relying on machine learning by the end of 2025?
Aug 25, 3:57 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
10.25%
chance
23
674
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1173
950
Will the "Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution" replicate by 2024 August 07?
Aug 7, 6:33 AM
Aug 7, 2:59 PM
6.85%
chance
20
1833
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1890
730
Will any commercial carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution become operational by 2025?
Aug 7, 6:43 AM
Jan 1, 2:59 PM
5.16%
chance
16
648
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1606
918
What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?
Jul 14, 7:07 PM
Jul 2, 5:59 AM
39.5%
chance
5
56
Option
Votes
YES
NO
265
222
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