Big News

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49%chance

1784987860

OptionVotes

YES

6310

4512

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.24%chance

1286951

OptionVotes

YES

3101

2083

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Jan 19, 5:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

85.72%chance

6132248

OptionVotes

YES

3180

1513

Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?

Sep 20, 8:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.86%chance

21169970

OptionVotes

YES

4746

209

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.62%chance

1287952

OptionVotes

YES

1879

1457

Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?

Jun 18, 8:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.02%chance

439855

OptionVotes

YES

1829

547

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

70%chance

351251

OptionVotes

YES

990

987

Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030

Apr 11, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.86%chance

12272

OptionVotes

YES

1010

985

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.57%chance

10513

OptionVotes

YES

1091

909

Will Jackie lay an egg that hatches in 2025? 🦅 Big Bear Valley Bald Eagles

Apr 25, 1:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.79%chance

10306

OptionVotes

YES

1005

994

Will Big mom and/or Kaido come back?(ends 1/1/2026)

May 16, 10:30 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

28.52%chance

514835

OptionVotes

YES

1638

295

Will any big tech ex-employee become President of the US before 2040?

Sep 22, 11:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.05%chance

20478

OptionVotes

YES

1026

982

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Big News

Prediction markets for Big

Prediction markets for Big

Prediction markets for Big

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Will Jackie lay an egg that hatches in 2025? 🦅 Big Bear Valley Bald Eagles

Will Big mom and/or Kaido come back?(ends 1/1/2026)

Will any big tech ex-employee become President of the US before 2040?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Big

Prediction markets for Big

Prediction markets for Big

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?