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Dario Sammartino Wins First WSOP Gold Bracelet in $2,500 Mixed Event, Earns $222,703
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6 days
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Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Jun 2, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

6613968

OptionVotes

YES

2267

1026

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

Jan 2, 9:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

14338466

OptionVotes

YES

1928

988

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

Apr 1, 10:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.81%chance

15521592

OptionVotes

YES

2859

1644

GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024?

Sep 15, 2:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

94.54%chance

12642484

OptionVotes

YES

8744

484

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

Mar 28, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.83%chance

10027192

OptionVotes

YES

3723

1183

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43%chance

18349211

OptionVotes

YES

1350

717

Algebraic value editing works better for larger language models, all else equal

Apr 2, 3:08 PMJul 29, 1:50 PM

48.16%chance

271532

OptionVotes

YES

1484

1474

Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)

May 31, 8:26 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

56.63%chance

615689

OptionVotes

YES

1143

875

🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024? (As Measured By Leaderboard)

Mar 29, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.09%chance

865746

OptionVotes

YES

2141

643

There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025

Apr 1, 3:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1079032

OptionVotes

YES

3784

599

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

1877

1353

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

65.2%chance

251196

OptionVotes

YES

1042

970

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Dario Sammartino Wins First WSOP Gold Bracelet in $2,500 Mixed Event, Earns $222,703
Authors
4
6 days
Poker
Sports

Better News

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Prediction markets for Better

Prediction markets for Better

Prediction markets for Better

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024?

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Algebraic value editing works better for larger language models, all else equal

Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)

🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024? (As Measured By Leaderboard)

There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Better

Prediction markets for Better

Prediction markets for Better

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024?

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]