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Prediction markets for Best Writing

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45.43%chance

1021397989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4752

3960

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.04%chance

12726724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

992

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7416

3786

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.32%chance

271336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

925

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

70%chance

351251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

987

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

53.37%chance

553916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

937

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

49.89%chance

383058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

874

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.5%chance

13171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

990

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

70.27%chance

10336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

963

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.2%chance

14191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

958

Will I be able to predict my partner better than she can predict me? (M$50 bounty for good questions.)

Oct 8, 6:47 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

50.29%chance

12292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

939

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