Best Take News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.51%chance

390542364

OptionVotes

YES

15663

14790

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

37.79%chance

608182742

OptionVotes

YES

17824

10432

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

55%chance

588028

OptionVotes

YES

1010

929

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

151070

OptionVotes

YES

5673

4770

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.39%chance

696224

OptionVotes

YES

2514

2202

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Nov 19, 1:57 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

64.6%chance

172046

OptionVotes

YES

1915

1451

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

17.41%chance

518584

OptionVotes

YES

3705

3281

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.32%chance

271336

OptionVotes

YES

1041

925

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.89%chance

13812657

OptionVotes

YES

1516

1316

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

70%chance

351251

OptionVotes

YES

990

987

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

75.03%chance

362074

OptionVotes

YES

1733

577

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

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Best Take News

Prediction markets for Best Take

Prediction markets for Best Take

Prediction markets for Best Take

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Best Take

Prediction markets for Best Take

Prediction markets for Best Take

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035