Best Score News

What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?

Mar 26, 6:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.95%chance

9312

OptionVotes

YES

289

178

Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?

Jan 4, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

198113

What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?

Mar 26, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.05%chance

5206

OptionVotes

YES

217

122

What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.6%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

185

175

What will be the best score on the InterCode (Bash) benchmark before 2025?

Mar 26, 6:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.92%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

190

136

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

Jun 30, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.41%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

235

117

What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025?

Mar 26, 6:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.25%chance

4215

OptionVotes

YES

159

158

The Economist "Which countries did best in 2024" results megamarket (MC UL, 71 in total)

Dec 18, 7:05 PMDec 16, 6:59 AM

61278

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.85%chance

846140

OptionVotes

YES

1823

1536

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Oct 26, 5:58 PMNov 6, 5:59 AM

50.64%chance

8417779

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1071

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 27, 9:20 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

80.57%chance

867069

OptionVotes

YES

2102

722

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

50.9%chance

543870

OptionVotes

YES

1086

886

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Best Score News

Prediction markets for Best Score

Prediction markets for Best Score

Prediction markets for Best Score

What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?

Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?

What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?

What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?

What will be the best score on the InterCode (Bash) benchmark before 2025?

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025?

The Economist "Which countries did best in 2024" results megamarket (MC UL, 71 in total)

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Best Score

Prediction markets for Best Score

Prediction markets for Best Score

What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?

Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?

What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?

What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?

What will be the best score on the InterCode (Bash) benchmark before 2025?

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025?

The Economist "Which countries did best in 2024" results megamarket (MC UL, 71 in total)

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Latest stories