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Prediction markets for Best

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Dec 13, 5:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36369770

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.5%chance

17711333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4575

1526

Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?

Sep 5, 7:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.93%chance

27175945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

1066

Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025?

Jan 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.3%chance

15724322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

1355

Which investment here will give the best return 6 months after May 1st 2024?

Apr 10, 3:54 PMNov 1, 4:00 AM

9443660

Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?

Nov 28, 5:13 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

4.37%chance

7031802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6153

603

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

52.49%chance

121115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

956

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.35%chance

592616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

889

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.64%chance

38913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

978

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

32.34%chance

222720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

186

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

78.03%chance

24915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

973

Will Lady Gaga compete for the Oscar for best actress in 2025?

Apr 10, 4:48 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

49.5%chance

10155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

995

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