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Prediction markets for Berkeley Earth

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:44 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

67%chance

282271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

969

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:01 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

74.26%chance

19775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

981

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

61.92%chance

16424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

938

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:00 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

77.19%chance

12415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

975

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 5:42 PMJan 13, 7:59 AM

17.21%chance

231274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

866

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:02 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

85.21%chance

12422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

953

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:58 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

52.94%chance

5125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

128

Will 2024 be the warmest year on record?

Dec 21, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.67%chance

777600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1831

809

Will 2024 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)

Nov 8, 11:00 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

70.96%chance

193303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

888

What will scientists cite as the primary causes of 2024's global temperature? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Jan 12, 7:16 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

231195

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)

Nov 8, 11:11 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

30.04%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

73

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Record November 2023 Temperatures Point to Strong El Niño, Potential Warmest Year, NOAA and Berkeley Earth Data, Exceeding 1.5°C
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9 months
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