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Prediction markets for Bad

If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results?

Jan 2, 8:47 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.11%chance

101311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10339

9022

Will "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" (2024) be the highest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise? (>$426M)

Jun 3, 3:51 AMSep 8, 6:59 AM

30%chance

253991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months?

Nov 5, 6:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.6%chance

292429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1491

539

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Feb 24, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.56%chance

11175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

958

The US political system will break down as badly as Jan 6 again before 2040

Sep 5, 8:45 AMSep 12, 10:59 PM

63.82%chance

11647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

931

There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025

Jun 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.54%chance

19621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

896

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

77.66%chance

211351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

928

In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?

Nov 12, 7:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.46%chance

311266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

902

Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.47%chance

10360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

906

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Mar 31, 6:42 PMJul 6, 6:59 PM

333289835

If Donald Trump is elected, will the US become bad enough for me as a trans woman that I have to emigrate to the UK?

Jan 25, 12:50 AMDec 2, 4:59 AM

15.39%chance

25650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

965

If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?

Sep 12, 3:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.81%chance

431887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

761

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