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Prediction markets for Assistive

Will U.S. security assistance to Ukraine drop by more than 50% in FY2024?

Dec 2, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.57%chance

522447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1648

977

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80%chance

31944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

886

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.34%chance

352005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

833

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.51%chance

16291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

969

Will Siri have built-in AI, stock, before Android Assistant?

Jun 28, 11:26 AMApr 2, 4:59 AM

29%chance

13423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

930

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.02%chance

6800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1781

562

Will there be more paralegals and legal assistants employed in 2026 than today?

Mar 18, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.05%chance

13240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

965

Will access to social assistance be automated in France before 2027 ?

Jun 20, 9:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37%chance

10208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

972

Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?

Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

55.34%chance

271261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

867

By the end of 2025, will any AI beat Pokemon Emerald Version without human assistance?

Jan 15, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.78%chance

421721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

953

Will any player have 3 or more assists in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Aug 6, 2:58 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

82.39%chance

12323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

945

Will OpenAI demo a desktop or browser assistant that automates white-collar tasks before 2026?

Mar 28, 9:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.22%chance

361162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

784

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