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Arrival News
Prediction markets for Arrival
Prediction markets for Arrival
When will AGI arrive
Nov 27, 1:39 PM
Jan 3, 10:59 PM
20
715
Will flight CK206 arrive BEFORE 17:00 UTC?
May 4, 6:14 PM
May 5, 2:00 PM
29%
chance
12
377
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1004
989
Will anyone else arrive at Egghead?
Mar 13, 3:51 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
43.7%
chance
20
730
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1216
784
Will the Cross Guild arrive in egghead island?
Mar 23, 7:59 PM
Jul 13, 6:29 PM
12.84%
chance
26
2460
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1511
865
Will any rigorously proven room temperature superconductors arrive before 2025?
Aug 13, 7:25 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
7.19%
chance
10
601
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1190
956
In which year will the first extraterrestrially mined material arrive on Earth?
Jun 29, 3:16 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
27.21%
chance
4
137
Option
Votes
YES
NO
392
273
Will the Europa Clipper mission last at least 4 years after arriving at Jupiter?
Aug 31, 7:42 PM
Apr 2, 6:59 AM
88.22%
chance
7
195
Option
Votes
NO
YES
348
119
Will two pandas arrive at the San Diego zoo by the end of August 2024?
May 2, 5:29 PM
Sep 1, 3:59 AM
96.26%
chance
6
583
Option
Votes
NO
YES
507
20
What is the hardest line in fiction, according to Manifold?
Apr 10, 6:46 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
24
3794
Elon Musk's 2024: What Will He Do Next?
Nov 7, 9:17 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
19
1534
Will I work in Antarctica this year? Which parts of the process will happen?
Mar 9, 12:44 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
20
5962
🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films that haven't been on it before will make it? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 4, 4:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9
570
Articles
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Authors
22
3 months
Culture
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Authors
5
8 months
Culture
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