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April Fools News
Prediction markets for April Fools
Prediction markets for April Fools
Troll Logic Megamarket: What things will technically happen by April Fool's Day? (In loving memory of Levi Finkelstein)
Mar 22, 1:02 AM
Apr 2, 4:00 AM
57
5725
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?
May 6, 1:47 PM
Apr 2, 3:59 AM
46.95%
chance
4
32
Option
Votes
YES
NO
106
94
Is messing with the "Yes" and "No" trade button for April's Fool a good idea?
Apr 1, 5:56 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
67
0
For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2024?
Mar 2, 5:26 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
22
16772
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
May 17, 1:00 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
26%
chance
17
479
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1036
905
If I submit this possible grammar error (in description) to Eliezer Yudkowsky, will he say it's not actually an error?
Apr 3, 3:18 AM
Aug 8, 11:59 PM
24.08%
chance
22
1145
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1743
583
Will Jimmy Carter survive the Day of the Dead?
Mar 7, 5:18 AM
Nov 3, 4:59 AM
43.27%
chance
19
1724
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1037
936
In Oldschool Runescape, will Sailing be released in 2024?
Mar 5, 5:00 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
56.3%
chance
12
258
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1020
957
Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of July 2024?
May 14, 9:52 PM
Aug 2, 4:59 AM
95.44%
chance
58
20344
Option
Votes
NO
YES
4637
501
Will Jimmy Carter be alive when Tropico 7 comes out?
Mar 7, 5:27 AM
Sep 2, 4:59 AM
18.9%
chance
4
192
Option
Votes
YES
NO
326
84
Will Jimmy Carter be alive when Farcry 7 comes out?
Mar 7, 5:26 AM
Aug 2, 4:59 AM
12.85%
chance
7
418
Option
Votes
YES
NO
415
65
Will this feature get implemented in minecraft?
Jan 2, 9:42 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 PM
21.34%
chance
4
112
Option
Votes
YES
NO
125
43
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