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Prediction markets for Animation

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.56%chance

16870748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2080

1864

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.47%chance

13111981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2969

2380

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2024?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.2%chance

21339153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4702

1324

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

79.16%chance

13826215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3817

2915

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.98%chance

655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.21%chance

895154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1773

1678

Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?

Jul 15, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.08%chance

32234153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7097

352

Will any Rational Animations video released in 2023 or late 2022 have over 2 million views by the end of 2024?

Nov 18, 4:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.02%chance

109177801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

265

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.97%chance

7810818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4296

865

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.62%chance

7310882

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1667

955

Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024?

Jun 12, 10:39 AMDec 12, 10:59 PM

4.96%chance

423920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1521

935

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

67.54%chance

374297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

693

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