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Prediction markets for American people

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

29.99%chance

669182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

752

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.54%chance

341600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

867

Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?

Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

13.94%chance

1265275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

1373

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.42%chance

421449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

839

Will at least half of Americans (aged 30-40) possess crypto currency by 2060?

Nov 7, 4:30 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

193200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1283

691

Will the next GPT model be released before the 2024 USA Presidential Election?

Mar 21, 3:30 PMNov 18, 5:59 AM

40.11%chance

649044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

266

Will there be a death at a Trump Rally in 2024?

Jan 13, 12:52 AMJan 23, 7:59 AM

29.9%chance

20921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

968

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

By the start of 2026, will at least 10 people have been permanently cured of HIV?

Nov 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

74.99%chance

29916

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

966

At the beginning of 2027, will Americans like Sam Altman more than they like Mark Zuckerberg?

Apr 4, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.79%chance

29997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

980

Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2024

Dec 6, 2:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

27.14%chance

182236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1561

648

Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?

Feb 28, 8:35 AMMar 2, 2:59 AM

20.37%chance

221606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

971

965

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Biden Eyes Executive Order to Tackle Border Crisis, Faces Bipartisan Backlash
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4 months
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