All That News

Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?

Apr 8, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.64%chance

546105

OptionVotes

YES

2396

810

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.09%chance

201198

OptionVotes

YES

1299

875

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

May 1, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.47%chance

11379

OptionVotes

YES

1100

961

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

Feb 8, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.23%chance

11210

OptionVotes

YES

1115

959

By the end of 2024, Ukraine will sign a peace treaty that cedes all currently Russia-occupied land

Mar 28, 11:43 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

14.58%chance

14478

OptionVotes

YES

1160

937

The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish

Jun 3, 8:42 PMJul 4, 6:59 AM

5.65%chance

265547

OptionVotes

YES

4085

245

Will "How it All Went Down: The Puzzle Hunt that to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

122081

OptionVotes

YES

1389

948

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionVotes

YES

1249

958

Will ECCV 2024 put all posters from papers that were previously on arXiv into their own "room of shame"

Feb 29, 5:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

OptionVotes

YES

125

115

Will Republicans once again suggest that all elections they win are valid but those that they lose are stolen in 2024 ?

Dec 24, 7:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54%chance

9152

OptionVotes

YES

189

188

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

May 15, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.45%chance

8100

OptionVotes

YES

124

When will Praxis announce that it is ending operations and returning all remaining funds to investors?

Dec 12, 6:23 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

9373

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All That News

Prediction markets for All That

Prediction markets for All That

Prediction markets for All That

Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

By the end of 2024, Ukraine will sign a peace treaty that cedes all currently Russia-occupied land

The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish

Will "How it All Went Down: The Puzzle Hunt that to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will ECCV 2024 put all posters from papers that were previously on arXiv into their own "room of shame"

Will Republicans once again suggest that all elections they win are valid but those that they lose are stolen in 2024 ?

If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?

When will Praxis announce that it is ending operations and returning all remaining funds to investors?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for All That

Prediction markets for All That

Prediction markets for All That

Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

By the end of 2024, Ukraine will sign a peace treaty that cedes all currently Russia-occupied land

The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish

Will "How it All Went Down: The Puzzle Hunt that to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will ECCV 2024 put all posters from papers that were previously on arXiv into their own "room of shame"

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?