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Prediction markets for All Her Fault

What exactly caused the 737MAX Alaska Airlines rapid depressurisation incident?

Jan 6, 10:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

377433

Will the New Madrid fault produce a catastrophic earthquake in 2024?

Jun 5, 8:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.2%chance

3200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

Which party was at fault in the 2024 Haneda Airport runway collision?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12682

Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?

Jul 13, 4:18 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

7245

Will a driverless Waymo be involved in a significant freeway crash (regardless of fault) in 2024 [description]

Jan 9, 12:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.48%chance

4103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

272

Will hax find another faulty mechanic in SSBM before 2025?

Nov 28, 9:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55%chance

9289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

105

Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP through 2024

Jul 13, 3:40 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.03%chance

472368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

819

Will someone be killed by a Cruise or Waymo taxi by 2025?

Nov 23, 9:01 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

18.37%chance

20883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1424

826

Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP before 2026.

Oct 12, 5:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

39.14%chance

351868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

587

Will any private message on Manifold be shared with the public without the consent of any of its participants by 2025?

Oct 19, 7:51 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.18%chance

17962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

823

Will browsing Astral Codex Ten be less annoying before the end of 2024?

Mar 12, 8:04 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

86.54%chance

13888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

593

114

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024

Dec 20, 6:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6.18%chance

4270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

29

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Latest stories

Sarah Snook to Star and Executive Produce in Peacock Thriller Series 'All Her Fault', Based on Novel
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1 month
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