AL News

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Jul 26, 2:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.16%chance

154498919

OptionVotes

YES

8208

921

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.6%chance

575189

OptionVotes

YES

2503

2181

SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?

Oct 18, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.95%chance

315481

OptionVotes

YES

1104

763

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

64.37%chance

14031696

OptionVotes

YES

1294

1251

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

1043

958

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

Will a generative Al media company be investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit? (SoAIR'23)

Oct 16, 2:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.65%chance

21699

OptionVotes

YES

1128

926

Will Shohei Ohtani be voted AL or NL MVP for the 2024 season?

Aug 5, 6:41 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

32.73%chance

222718

OptionVotes

YES

1037

756

Will a matmul algorithm better than O(n^{2.371552}) [Willians et al. 2023] be published before the end of 2025?

Aug 7, 9:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.94%chance

251004

OptionVotes

YES

1143

921

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.54%chance

27578

OptionVotes

YES

1096

928

Will Al Gore make it to age 95?

Nov 10, 8:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.91%chance

12671

OptionVotes

YES

1045

930

Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2025?

Oct 11, 7:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.62%chance

10268

OptionVotes

YES

1204

934

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AL News

Prediction markets for AL

Prediction markets for AL

Prediction markets for AL

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Will a generative Al media company be investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit? (SoAIR'23)

Will Shohei Ohtani be voted AL or NL MVP for the 2024 season?

Will a matmul algorithm better than O(n^{2.371552}) [Willians et al. 2023] be published before the end of 2025?

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Will Al Gore make it to age 95?

Will Bashar al-Assad be in power in Syria until the end of 2025?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for AL

Prediction markets for AL

Prediction markets for AL

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Will a generative Al media company be investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit? (SoAIR'23)