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AI Red Team News
Prediction markets for AI Red Team
Prediction markets for AI Red Team
In which quarter will NIST publish AI "red team" standards?
Oct 30, 7:39 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
5
121
Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
Sep 20, 3:16 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
45.88%
chance
42
3237
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1827
1226
Will any LLM released by EOY 2024 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
Sep 20, 11:53 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
20.17%
chance
70
4462
Option
Votes
NO
YES
985
981
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
41.01%
chance
9
900
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1199
834
Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?
May 18, 1:53 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
61.29%
chance
20
2251
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1258
795
By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents?
Feb 11, 3:10 PM
Jul 1, 3:59 AM
13.99%
chance
6
92
Option
Votes
YES
NO
242
117
Will evidence emerge that Gemini Ultra launch fiasco was result of Rationalist/EA sabotage by the end of Feb 2025?
Feb 26, 4:59 PM
Mar 1, 2:59 AM
2.48%
chance
24
1696
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2026
892
How many years until a game like Red Dead Redemption 2 could be developed by a handful (5-20) of people within 2 years.
Jan 6, 3:11 PM
18
0
What news headline would destroy your net worth the most?
Oct 16, 5:55 AM
0
0
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Microsoft, OpenAI Launch PyRIT, Offer $10M Bounty for AI Security
Authors
5
4 months
AI
Infosec
Tech
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