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Prediction markets for AI Platform

Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?

Jun 29, 5:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

38.41%chance

272594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

780

Will a fully AI-generated series or film be available on a major streaming platform before 2025?

Mar 16, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

14485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

920

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

16.71%chance

92023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2233

448

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

Mar 14, 9:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

10456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

899

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

11390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

943

Will any major social platform integrate OpenAI’s metadata to visibly indicate AI-generated images in 2024?

Feb 6, 8:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.02%chance

404982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

779

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11%chance

10748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

946

Which Open Source Machine Learning / AI Development Streamlining Platform Will Be The Most Popular at the end of 2024?

Mar 25, 2:14 AMOct 1, 4:59 AM

271

Will any politician be elected on an AI gain-of-function moratorium platform?

Apr 9, 9:50 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

38%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

81

How many titled tuesday winners will be banned for cheating using AI from any online platform in the next one year?

Mar 24, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5106

Will prominent AI Safety Researcher Tucker Carlson have other safety researchers on his show on X platform?

Apr 23, 3:47 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

52.95%chance

9143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

272

247

Will any politician be elected on a Luddite platform to protect jobs from AI automation?

Apr 9, 9:44 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

81.13%chance

792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

96

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